AbstractThe primary aim of this research is to identify the Megatrends that affect the application of sustainable mobility on a European level. The starting point of the research has been the identification of these Megatrends as their long lasting impact affects the development of the transport system. Furthermore, an analysis of how these Megatrends may affect sustainable mobility was conducted. Sustainable mobility is understood as a long-term vision that needs to be achieved in the context of achieving a more inclusive and competitive society and economy in a continuously changing context.
Fifty-two trends in the political, socio-economic, policy/legal and technological environment were identified in the literature review. These were prioritised in the twelve most predominant ones using the experts’ advice by applying the Delphi method. Then three potential future scenarios were developed. These trends and scenarios were further validated and their impact on achieving sustainable mobility was measured using the Analytic Network Process. The most influential Megatrends identified are unemployment, taxation, pricing, charges and sustainable development, with unemployment being the most sensitive trend which can prevent the achievement of sustainable mobility.
The analysis revealed that the expert groups that participated in the research (policy–makers, academics and industry) shared the same views and visions for the future of sustainable mobility if the key Megatrends were taken into account in policy development in a fully interconnected way.
|Date of Award||Nov 2019|
|Supervisor||David Morris (Supervisor), Stefania Paladini (Supervisor) & Neil Pyper (Supervisor)|