WOLVES: Window of Opportunity attack feasibility likelihood value estimation through a simulation-based approach

The Road Vehicles Cybersecurity Engineering Standard, ISO/SAE 21434, provides a framework for road vehicle Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The TARA framework must include Connected Vehicles (CVs) and their connectivity with external interfaces. However, assessing cyber-attack feasibility on CVs is a significant challenge, as traditionally, qualitative and subjective expert opinions are the norm. Additionally, there is a need for historical data on security-related incidents and dynamically evolving interconnected vehicle-to-everything (V2X) entities for feasibility assessment, which is not readily available. To address this problem, this paper presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first simulation-based TARA framework designed to characterise, quantify, and assess the Window of Opportunity (WO) for attackers—a metric that indicates the likelihood of an attack. A case study involving Bluetooth, with one attacker and one target, is modelled to demonstrate the proposed framework WOLVES’s applicability. Two scenarios have been investigated using different motorway roads in the UK. The primary outcome is the WOLVES framework, which employs a data-driven approach using both prior and likelihood information to estimate the probability of a successful cyber attack on a given technology in CVs. The findings from this research could assist threat analysts, decision-makers, and planners involved in CV risk assessment by enhancing the modelling of attack feasibility for cybersecurity threats in dynamic scenarios and developing appropriate mitigation strategies.