Will Generative AI Fundamentally Change Terrorist Threats?

This article examines whether generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) represents a genuine transformation in terrorist capability or whether its risks are being overstated within contemporary security discourse. Drawing on affordance theory, it explores how terrorists exploit technologies in ways not intended by their designers and assesses the practical implications of Gen AI across propaganda, recruitment and radicalization, reconnaissance, and attack planning. The article argues that while Gen AI tools, particularly large language models, can improve the efficiency, accessibility, and scale of certain terrorist activities, there remains limited evidence that they fundamentally alter the nature of terrorism or significantly enhance operational capability. Instead, many anticipated threats remain hypothetical and are often shaped by speculative worst-case scenarios rather than demonstrated use. The article further argues that terrorists historically favor technologies that are cheap, accessible, reliable, and easy to adapt, rather than highly sophisticated innovations.