Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow

Research output: Book/ReportBook

945 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherWiley
Number of pages338
ISBN (Electronic)9780470033319
ISBN (Print)9780470029992
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Keywords

  • Expert elicitation
  • Bayes

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    O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., ... Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/0470033312