Towards a predictive analytics-based intelligent malaria outbreak warning system

Babagana Modu, Nereida Polovina, Yang Lan, Savas Konur, A. Taufiq Asyhari, Yonghong Peng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)
4 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Malaria, as one of the most serious infectious diseases causing public health problems in the world, affects about two-thirds of the world population, with estimated resultant deaths close to a million annually. The effects of this disease are much more profound in third world countries, which have very limited medical resources. When an intense outbreak occurs, most of these countries cannot cope with the high number of patients due to the lack of medicine, equipment and hospital facilities. The prevention or reduction of the risk factor of this disease is very challenging, especially in third world countries, due to poverty and economic insatiability. Technology can offer alternative solutions by providing early detection mechanisms that help to control the spread of the disease and allow the management of treatment facilities in advance to ensure a more timely health service, which can save thousands of lives. In this study, we have deployed an intelligent malaria outbreak early warning system, which is a mobile application that predicts malaria outbreak based on climatic factors using machine learning algorithms. The system will help hospitals, healthcare providers, and health organizations take precautions in time and utilize their resources in case of emergency. To our best knowledge, the system developed in this paper is the first publicly available application. Since confounding effects of climatic factors have a greater influence on the incidence of malaria, we have also conducted extensive research on exploring a new ecosystem model for the assessment of hidden ecological factors and identified three confounding factors that significantly influence the malaria incidence. Additionally, we deploy a smart healthcare application; this paper also makes a significant contribution by identifying hidden ecological factors of malaria.

Original languageEnglish
Article number836
Number of pages20
JournalApplied Sciences (Switzerland)
Volume7
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Aug 2017
Externally publishedYes

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warning systems
Alarm systems
Health
health
resources
Public health
Medical problems
incidence
early warning systems
Ecosystems
Learning algorithms
Medicine
Learning systems
public health
accident prevention
machine learning
emergencies
ecosystems
infectious diseases
medicine

Bibliographical note

his article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Keywords

  • Climatic factors
  • Machine learning
  • Malaria
  • Mobile application
  • Partial least squares model
  • Prediction
  • Structural equation modelling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Materials Science(all)
  • Instrumentation
  • Engineering(all)
  • Process Chemistry and Technology
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes

Cite this

Towards a predictive analytics-based intelligent malaria outbreak warning system. / Modu, Babagana; Polovina, Nereida; Lan, Yang; Konur, Savas; Taufiq Asyhari, A.; Peng, Yonghong.

In: Applied Sciences (Switzerland), Vol. 7, No. 8, 836, 17.08.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Modu, Babagana ; Polovina, Nereida ; Lan, Yang ; Konur, Savas ; Taufiq Asyhari, A. ; Peng, Yonghong. / Towards a predictive analytics-based intelligent malaria outbreak warning system. In: Applied Sciences (Switzerland). 2017 ; Vol. 7, No. 8.
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