Time trend and Bayesian mapping of multiple myeloma incidence in Sardinia, Italy

Giorgio Broccia; Jonathan Carter; Cansu Ozsin-Ozler; Federico Meloni; Ilaria Pilia; Sara De Matteis; Pierluigi Cocco

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-06745-z

Time trend and Bayesian mapping of multiple myeloma incidence in Sardinia, Italy

Giorgio Broccia, Jonathan Carter, Cansu Ozsin-Ozler, Federico Meloni, Ilaria Pilia, Sara De Matteis, Pierluigi Cocco

Research Centre for Fluid and Complex Systems

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Abstract

Abstract: A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). We used a validated database including the 1606 cases of MM diagnosed in Sardinia in 1974–2003 to explore its time trend, and we applied Bayesian methods to plot MM probability by administrative unit on the regional map. Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 10–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. MM incidence increased by 3.3%/year in 1974–2003, in both males and females, particularly among the elderly and in the high incidence areas. Areas at risk tended to cluster in the north-eastern part of the region. A higher proportion of elderly in the resident population, but not socioeconomic factors, nor livestock farming, was associated with higher incidence rates. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk.

Original language	English
Article number	2736
Number of pages	7
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06745-z
Publication status	Published - 17 Feb 2022

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Open Access Tis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. The Author(s).

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abstract = "Abstract: A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). We used a validated database including the 1606 cases of MM diagnosed in Sardinia in 1974–2003 to explore its time trend, and we applied Bayesian methods to plot MM probability by administrative unit on the regional map. Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 10–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. MM incidence increased by 3.3%/year in 1974–2003, in both males and females, particularly among the elderly and in the high incidence areas. Areas at risk tended to cluster in the north-eastern part of the region. A higher proportion of elderly in the resident population, but not socioeconomic factors, nor livestock farming, was associated with higher incidence rates. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk.",

author = "Giorgio Broccia and Jonathan Carter and Cansu Ozsin-Ozler and Federico Meloni and Ilaria Pilia and {De Matteis}, Sara and Pierluigi Cocco",

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AU - De Matteis, Sara

AU - Cocco, Pierluigi

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N2 - Abstract: A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). We used a validated database including the 1606 cases of MM diagnosed in Sardinia in 1974–2003 to explore its time trend, and we applied Bayesian methods to plot MM probability by administrative unit on the regional map. Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 10–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. MM incidence increased by 3.3%/year in 1974–2003, in both males and females, particularly among the elderly and in the high incidence areas. Areas at risk tended to cluster in the north-eastern part of the region. A higher proportion of elderly in the resident population, but not socioeconomic factors, nor livestock farming, was associated with higher incidence rates. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk.

AB - Abstract: A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). We used a validated database including the 1606 cases of MM diagnosed in Sardinia in 1974–2003 to explore its time trend, and we applied Bayesian methods to plot MM probability by administrative unit on the regional map. Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 10–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. MM incidence increased by 3.3%/year in 1974–2003, in both males and females, particularly among the elderly and in the high incidence areas. Areas at risk tended to cluster in the north-eastern part of the region. A higher proportion of elderly in the resident population, but not socioeconomic factors, nor livestock farming, was associated with higher incidence rates. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk.

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Time trend and Bayesian mapping of multiple myeloma incidence in Sardinia, Italy

Abstract

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