Time series analysis of COVID-19's impact on physician and dentist visits in Iran

Satar Rezaei; Hesam Ghiasvand; Heather Brown

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-67238-9

Time series analysis of COVID-19's impact on physician and dentist visits in Iran

Satar Rezaei, Hesam Ghiasvand, Heather Brown

Centre for Healthcare and Communities

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Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on general practitioner (GP), specialist, and dentist visits among 40 million Iranians covered by the Social Security Organization (SSO). A monthly interrupted time series analysis was conducted over a period of 72 months, including—47 months before the pandemic and 25 months after its onset. The outcomes variables were monthly number of GP, specialist, and dentist visits per 1000 SSO-insured individuals. The analysis was performed by total visits, visits to the SSO direct sector, and visits to the indirect sectors. The study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the number of visits per 1000 insured individuals significantly decreased for visits to GPs (by 51.12, 95% CI −64.42 to −37.88), visits to specialists (by 39.11, 95% CI −51.61 to −26.62), and visits to dentists (by 6.67, 95% CI −8.55 to −4.78). However, during the subsequent months of the pandemic, there was a significant increase in the number of monthly visits for all three categories, with GPs experiencing the highest increase (1.78 visits per 1000 insured), followed by specialists (1.32 visits per 1000 insured), and dentists (0.05 visits per 1000 insured). Furthermore, prior to the pandemic, the number of monthly GP visits per 1000 insured individuals was statistically significantly lower in the indirect sector compared to the direct sector (45.79, 95% CI −52.69 to −38.89). Conversely, the direct sector exhibited lower rates of specialist visits (25.84 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 22.87 to 28.82) and dentist visits (0.75 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.36) compared to the indirect sector. Additionally, the study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the monthly number of GP visits in the indirect sector significantly increased by 34.44 times (95% CI 24.81 to 44.08) compared to the direct sector. For specialist visits and dentist visits, the increase was 3.41 (95% CI −5.87 to 12.69) and 5.01 (95% CI 3.48 to 6.53) per 1000 insured individuals, respectively. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate statistically significant disruptions in GP, specialist, and dentist visits during the COVID-19 pandemic, although some recovery was observed. Both the direct and indirect sectors experienced decreased visits.

Original language	English
Article number	16453
Number of pages	9
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	14
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-67238-9
Publication status	Published - 16 Jul 2024

Bibliographical note

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Funder

This study was supported by a grant from the Social Security Research Institute (no: 2014012470).

Funding

This study was supported by a grant from the Social Security Research Institute (no: 2014012470).

Funders	Funder number
Social Security Research Institute	2014012470

Keywords

Interrupted time series analysis
COVID-19
Physician
Dentist
Visit
Iran

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Cite this

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title = "Time series analysis of COVID-19's impact on physician and dentist visits in Iran",

abstract = "This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on general practitioner (GP), specialist, and dentist visits among 40 million Iranians covered by the Social Security Organization (SSO). A monthly interrupted time series analysis was conducted over a period of 72 months, including—47 months before the pandemic and 25 months after its onset. The outcomes variables were monthly number of GP, specialist, and dentist visits per 1000 SSO-insured individuals. The analysis was performed by total visits, visits to the SSO direct sector, and visits to the indirect sectors. The study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the number of visits per 1000 insured individuals significantly decreased for visits to GPs (by 51.12, 95% CI −64.42 to −37.88), visits to specialists (by 39.11, 95% CI −51.61 to −26.62), and visits to dentists (by 6.67, 95% CI −8.55 to −4.78). However, during the subsequent months of the pandemic, there was a significant increase in the number of monthly visits for all three categories, with GPs experiencing the highest increase (1.78 visits per 1000 insured), followed by specialists (1.32 visits per 1000 insured), and dentists (0.05 visits per 1000 insured). Furthermore, prior to the pandemic, the number of monthly GP visits per 1000 insured individuals was statistically significantly lower in the indirect sector compared to the direct sector (45.79, 95% CI −52.69 to −38.89). Conversely, the direct sector exhibited lower rates of specialist visits (25.84 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 22.87 to 28.82) and dentist visits (0.75 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.36) compared to the indirect sector. Additionally, the study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the monthly number of GP visits in the indirect sector significantly increased by 34.44 times (95% CI 24.81 to 44.08) compared to the direct sector. For specialist visits and dentist visits, the increase was 3.41 (95% CI −5.87 to 12.69) and 5.01 (95% CI 3.48 to 6.53) per 1000 insured individuals, respectively. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate statistically significant disruptions in GP, specialist, and dentist visits during the COVID-19 pandemic, although some recovery was observed. Both the direct and indirect sectors experienced decreased visits.",

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AB - This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on general practitioner (GP), specialist, and dentist visits among 40 million Iranians covered by the Social Security Organization (SSO). A monthly interrupted time series analysis was conducted over a period of 72 months, including—47 months before the pandemic and 25 months after its onset. The outcomes variables were monthly number of GP, specialist, and dentist visits per 1000 SSO-insured individuals. The analysis was performed by total visits, visits to the SSO direct sector, and visits to the indirect sectors. The study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the number of visits per 1000 insured individuals significantly decreased for visits to GPs (by 51.12, 95% CI −64.42 to −37.88), visits to specialists (by 39.11, 95% CI −51.61 to −26.62), and visits to dentists (by 6.67, 95% CI −8.55 to −4.78). However, during the subsequent months of the pandemic, there was a significant increase in the number of monthly visits for all three categories, with GPs experiencing the highest increase (1.78 visits per 1000 insured), followed by specialists (1.32 visits per 1000 insured), and dentists (0.05 visits per 1000 insured). Furthermore, prior to the pandemic, the number of monthly GP visits per 1000 insured individuals was statistically significantly lower in the indirect sector compared to the direct sector (45.79, 95% CI −52.69 to −38.89). Conversely, the direct sector exhibited lower rates of specialist visits (25.84 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 22.87 to 28.82) and dentist visits (0.75 visits per 1000 insured individuals, 95% CI 0.12 to 1.36) compared to the indirect sector. Additionally, the study found that in the first month of the pandemic, the monthly number of GP visits in the indirect sector significantly increased by 34.44 times (95% CI 24.81 to 44.08) compared to the direct sector. For specialist visits and dentist visits, the increase was 3.41 (95% CI −5.87 to 12.69) and 5.01 (95% CI 3.48 to 6.53) per 1000 insured individuals, respectively. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate statistically significant disruptions in GP, specialist, and dentist visits during the COVID-19 pandemic, although some recovery was observed. Both the direct and indirect sectors experienced decreased visits.

KW - Interrupted time series analysis

KW - COVID-19

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KW - Dentist

KW - Visit

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ER -

Time series analysis of COVID-19's impact on physician and dentist visits in Iran

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funder

Funding

Keywords

Access to Document

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Cite this