Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration

Alireza Zareie, Shohel Amin, Luis Amador

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to simulate the Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) for zones within the Atlantic provinces of Canada (APC) during three 30-year periods in the 21st century and to estimate the interactive effect of TMI and simulated freight traffic loads on the deterioration of pavement structure during the same period. Regional Highways 1, 2, 7, 15, 16, 102, and 104 connecting the APC are considered as the case study. Integration of spatial input-output and transportation models simulates freight movements on the selected regional highways during the period of 2012–2100. TMI is estimated using downscaled average monthly precipitation and temperature at 34 stations within the APC. Simulated traffic loads and TMI are applied to mechanistic modeling of roughness progression on the pavement structure. The findings of this study show that an increase in TMI can cause 11–68% increase of roughness progress rate on pavement structure.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Transportation Engineering
Volume142
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jan 2016

Fingerprint

Climate change
Pavements
Deterioration
Moisture
climate change
Canada
Surface roughness
freight traffic
traffic
cause
Temperature

Keywords

  • Pavement performance modeling
  • Thornthwaite moisture index
  • International roughness index
  • Annual average daily truck traffic
  • Equivalent single axle loads
  • Spatial input-output model
  • General circulation models
  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data

Cite this

Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration. / Zareie, Alireza; Amin, Shohel; Amador, Luis.

In: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 142, No. 4, 13.01.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{f532341ad084449f976bf6a2b328d3b4,
title = "Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration",
abstract = "The objectives of this study are to simulate the Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) for zones within the Atlantic provinces of Canada (APC) during three 30-year periods in the 21st century and to estimate the interactive effect of TMI and simulated freight traffic loads on the deterioration of pavement structure during the same period. Regional Highways 1, 2, 7, 15, 16, 102, and 104 connecting the APC are considered as the case study. Integration of spatial input-output and transportation models simulates freight movements on the selected regional highways during the period of 2012–2100. TMI is estimated using downscaled average monthly precipitation and temperature at 34 stations within the APC. Simulated traffic loads and TMI are applied to mechanistic modeling of roughness progression on the pavement structure. The findings of this study show that an increase in TMI can cause 11–68{\%} increase of roughness progress rate on pavement structure.",
keywords = "Pavement performance modeling, Thornthwaite moisture index, International roughness index, Annual average daily truck traffic, Equivalent single axle loads, Spatial input-output model, General circulation models, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data",
author = "Alireza Zareie and Shohel Amin and Luis Amador",
year = "2016",
month = "1",
day = "13",
doi = "10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000840",
language = "English",
volume = "142",
journal = "Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A: Systems",
issn = "2473-2907",
publisher = "ASCE",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Thornthwaite Moisture Index Modeling to Estimate the Implication of Climate Change on Pavement Deterioration

AU - Zareie, Alireza

AU - Amin, Shohel

AU - Amador, Luis

PY - 2016/1/13

Y1 - 2016/1/13

N2 - The objectives of this study are to simulate the Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) for zones within the Atlantic provinces of Canada (APC) during three 30-year periods in the 21st century and to estimate the interactive effect of TMI and simulated freight traffic loads on the deterioration of pavement structure during the same period. Regional Highways 1, 2, 7, 15, 16, 102, and 104 connecting the APC are considered as the case study. Integration of spatial input-output and transportation models simulates freight movements on the selected regional highways during the period of 2012–2100. TMI is estimated using downscaled average monthly precipitation and temperature at 34 stations within the APC. Simulated traffic loads and TMI are applied to mechanistic modeling of roughness progression on the pavement structure. The findings of this study show that an increase in TMI can cause 11–68% increase of roughness progress rate on pavement structure.

AB - The objectives of this study are to simulate the Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) for zones within the Atlantic provinces of Canada (APC) during three 30-year periods in the 21st century and to estimate the interactive effect of TMI and simulated freight traffic loads on the deterioration of pavement structure during the same period. Regional Highways 1, 2, 7, 15, 16, 102, and 104 connecting the APC are considered as the case study. Integration of spatial input-output and transportation models simulates freight movements on the selected regional highways during the period of 2012–2100. TMI is estimated using downscaled average monthly precipitation and temperature at 34 stations within the APC. Simulated traffic loads and TMI are applied to mechanistic modeling of roughness progression on the pavement structure. The findings of this study show that an increase in TMI can cause 11–68% increase of roughness progress rate on pavement structure.

KW - Pavement performance modeling

KW - Thornthwaite moisture index

KW - International roughness index

KW - Annual average daily truck traffic

KW - Equivalent single axle loads

KW - Spatial input-output model

KW - General circulation models

KW - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000840

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000840

M3 - Article

VL - 142

JO - Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A: Systems

JF - Journal of Transportation Engineering Part A: Systems

SN - 2473-2907

IS - 4

ER -