The potential of satellite remote sensing for monitoring the onset of volcanic activity on Taipei’s doorstep

The Tatun Volcanic Group (TVG) in northern Taiwan is the sole volcanic region on the island, with its last eruptive episode around 5,500 years ago. It has been suggested that the TVG retains the capacity for volcanic explosivity which has the potential to devastate the nearby Taipei metropolitan area of 7 million inhabitants. Though the probability of future eruption is low by probabilistic estimation, the vulnerability to volcanic hazards is high for Taipei given that it is the centre of population, industry, and government for the island. An assessment of any activity precursors is thus vital but also particularly challenging. Here, we perform an eruption-potential assessment based on the analysis of a sixteen-year Land Surface Temperature (LST) time series of data derived from satellite-retrieved thermal imagery. A Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is applied to decompose oscillatory components of various timescales within the LST time series. The annual-period components are compared with those from two active volcanoes in the Philippines to assess the potential of eruption cycles in the TVG. Results from the Philippine volcanoes show that annual-period components of LST tend to lose their regularity following an eruption. By contrast, the regular annual period component of LST of the TVG Taiwan suggests a quiet and resting status with no sign of an imminent eruption.