The new era of turbulence: Peacemaking trends in post-carbon times

Jan Pospisil

doi:10.1177/27538796241272366

The new era of turbulence: Peacemaking trends in post-carbon times

Jan Pospisil

Research Centre for Peace and Security

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Based on an empirical comparison of peace processes in carbon-dependent economies over time, this article investigates the impact of decarbonization and the related declining availability of political finance on peacemaking. While the period of high oil prices in the mid-2000s saw a small number of peace deals that attempted comprehensive settlements, the decline of oil prices in the years from 2014 resulted in a new era of turbulence. The turbulence is characterized by a high number of peacemaking attempts that strongly lean toward conflict management rather than resolution. The reasons for this new turbulence are twofold: the available means for substantial “buy-in,” into a political marketplace by ruling elites in carbon-dependent conflictive political marketplaces have vanished while, at the same time, the strategic interest of international powers in geopolitical stability and their willingness and capability to invest in such stability has declined.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	375-391
Number of pages	17
Journal	Environment and Security
Volume	2
Issue number	3
Early online date	21 Aug 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796241272366
Publication status	Published - Sept 2024

Bibliographical note

Copyright © and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.

This document is the author’s post-print version, incorporating any revisions agreed during the peer-review process. Some differences between the published version and this version may remain and you are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it.

Funding

This research is supported by the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform (PeaceRep), funded by UK International Development from the UK government.

Funders	Funder number
UK Government

Keywords

peace processes
peace agreement
armed conflict
natural resources
peacemaking

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1177/27538796241272366

Pospisil2024AAMAccepted author manuscript, 1.19 MB

Cite this

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title = "The new era of turbulence: Peacemaking trends in post-carbon times",

abstract = "Based on an empirical comparison of peace processes in carbon-dependent economies over time, this article investigates the impact of decarbonization and the related declining availability of political finance on peacemaking. While the period of high oil prices in the mid-2000s saw a small number of peace deals that attempted comprehensive settlements, the decline of oil prices in the years from 2014 resulted in a new era of turbulence. The turbulence is characterized by a high number of peacemaking attempts that strongly lean toward conflict management rather than resolution. The reasons for this new turbulence are twofold: the available means for substantial “buy-in,” into a political marketplace by ruling elites in carbon-dependent conflictive political marketplaces have vanished while, at the same time, the strategic interest of international powers in geopolitical stability and their willingness and capability to invest in such stability has declined.",

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The new era of turbulence: Peacemaking trends in post-carbon times

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Cite this