The effect of extreme weather events on breeding parameters of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia

Capsule: Although the White Stork avoids adverse weather conditions by modifying its arrival and breeding, it cannot avoid extreme weather events during the breeding season. Aims: To show how extreme weather conditions can influence breeding attempts of a large, long-lived species, the White Stork. Methods: We analysed data on arrivals of White Storks in Western Poland from 2005 to 2013 and detailed breeding biology parameters from 2009 to 2013 in relation to weather conditions. We analysed breeding success and breeding failure rate from 1974 to 2013. Results: In years with a cold March White Storks arrived later than when March was warmer. Frost during incubation negatively influenced the hatching success. Extreme weather events caused high late mortality even for nestlings older than 30 days. Data from 27 breeding seasons showed a significant increase in mean breeding success but also a significant increase in the proportion of pairs which lost broods in the nestling stage. Conclusion: The White Stork can modify its arrival in response to current weather conditions on the breeding grounds but it cannot respond to extreme weather events. Due to increasing frequency of extreme weather events caused by climate change, White Stork breeding success may decrease in the future. Publisher statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Bird Study on 24th July 2015, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00063657.2015.1058745