The building blocks of aspiration to go to university in young people from post-industrial towns in England

In England, there has been a shift away from ‘aspiration raising’ in widening participation (WP) activities aimed at improving access to higher education (HE) for students from low socio-economic status groups. This shift is partly based on the notion that students from these groups do not inherently “aim lower” However, understanding the factors that drive aspirations towards HE remains crucial for addressing geographical gaps in HE participation that cannot be explained by prior attainment. This study aimed to inform WP practices using rich questionnaire data from 602 year 10 students across six schools in post-industrial English towns known for high community need and poor opportunities, contextualised within a Theory of Possible Selves framework. The questionnaire examined students' HE aspirations, education perceptions, and self-esteem. Findings revealed that only 39.4% of the students in this cohort aspired to university at age 18, with significant gender differences: 46.6% of females versus 29.8% of males (p < 0.001), thus challenging the notion of pre-set high aspirations and underlining the importance of locality-specific and socio-cultural context. Having role models, particularly close relatives, who have been to university is valuable, underscoring the importance of fostering similar social capital for students without such connections. Commitment to schooling and academic self-concept were significant predictors of HE aspiration, with two specific elements standing out for WP consideration: understanding the value of education and being confident in solving problems. Findings have important policy implications, which are discussed along with practical recommendations for tailoring WP interventions, considering contextual and socioeconomic factors.