The Application of Hurdle Models to Accurately Model 0-0 Draws in Predictive Models of Football Match Outcomes

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceedingpeer-review

    Abstract

    A novel application of so-called hurdle models is presented in the context of association football match prediction models, which has the flexibility of being able to capture either the deflation or inflation of the probability of 0-0 scores. The deployment of the model in real time on week by week basis to develop one-round ahead predicted forecasts is discussed in the context of a Bayesian framework. The problem of forming appropriate informative prior distributions for parameters that need to satisfy sum to zero constraints is also developed. Using match results data from the Scottish Premier League, the use of the hurdle model approach is shown to improve the predictive accuracy of the probability of 0-0 scores and can lead to a potentially profitable betting strategy when used for betting on the 0-0 score market.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference
    Subtitle of host publicationProceedings
    EditorsCarla De Francesco, Luigi De Giovanni, Marco Ferrante, Giovanni Fonseca, Francesco Lisi, Silvia Pontarollo
    PublisherPadova University Press
    Pages295-304
    Number of pages10
    ISBN (Electronic)978-88-6938-058-7
    Publication statusPublished - 26 Jun 2017
    EventMathsport International Conference 2017 - Padua, Italy
    Duration: 26 Jun 201728 Jun 2017

    Conference

    ConferenceMathsport International Conference 2017
    Country/TerritoryItaly
    CityPadua
    Period26/06/1728/06/17

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'The Application of Hurdle Models to Accurately Model 0-0 Draws in Predictive Models of Football Match Outcomes'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this