Subnational democratization and the onset of the Mexican drug war

The Mexican drug war escalated dramatically since 2007. However, its origin is in the 1990s turf wars involving the main drug trafficking organisations operating in the country. In this study we seek to examine the main cause of turf wars at the municipal level between 1995-2006. In particular, we highlight the significant role of a large-scale land titling reform (PROCEDE) that secured property rights for the electorate, previously controlled by the state party (PRI) for seven decades. Our results indicate that political change at the municipality level after the rollout of PROCEDE is a significant determinant of organised crime deaths (OCDs). We further provide evidence that the effect is exacerbated when municipal political change is combined with a change at the gubernational level. We also show that increased intercartel violence is inextricably linked to the geographic expansion of cartel operations. Overall, the fall of the PRI at the subnational level after the rollout of PROCEDE - to signify its strong local roots - broke the equilibrium between corrupted local officials and local drug cartels making the latter more vulnerable to expansion operations of rival cartels resulting in more OCDs.