Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale

Stavros Christopoulos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas

    Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

    Abstract

    It has been recently shown [1,2] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. The identification of this correlation became possible when studying the variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity[3,4]. In the present study, we focus on the behaviour of the fluctuations of κ1 before major earthquakes using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue for a magnitude threshold Mthres=5.0 as in Ref.[5]. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations κ1 of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than M8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [6] that similar minima of seismicity order parameter fluctuations had been observed before all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Finally, we examine the statistical significance of the results by using ROC graphs [7,8] and the proposed prediction method has a p-value to occur by chance well below 0.1%. The hit rate is 100% with a false alarm rate only 6.67%. An attempt to lower the target earthquake magnitude threshold will be also presented.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication statusPublished - 22 Apr 2016
    EventEGU Geneal Assembly 2016 - Vienna, Austria
    Duration: 17 Apr 201622 Apr 2016

    Conference

    ConferenceEGU Geneal Assembly 2016
    CountryAustria
    CityVienna
    Period17/04/1622/04/16

    Fingerprint

    seismicity
    earthquake
    centroid moment tensor
    earthquake magnitude
    parameter
    prediction
    rate

    Cite this

    Christopoulos, S., Sarlis, N. V., & Skordas, E. S. (2016). Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale. Abstract from EGU Geneal Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria.

    Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale. / Christopoulos, Stavros; Sarlis, N.V.; Skordas, E.S.

    2016. Abstract from EGU Geneal Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria.

    Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

    Christopoulos, S, Sarlis, NV & Skordas, ES 2016, 'Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale' EGU Geneal Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria, 17/04/16 - 22/04/16, .
    Christopoulos S, Sarlis NV, Skordas ES. Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale. 2016. Abstract from EGU Geneal Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria.
    Christopoulos, Stavros ; Sarlis, N.V. ; Skordas, E.S. / Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale. Abstract from EGU Geneal Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria.
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    title = "Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale",
    abstract = "It has been recently shown [1,2] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. The identification of this correlation became possible when studying the variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity[3,4]. In the present study, we focus on the behaviour of the fluctuations of κ1 before major earthquakes using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue for a magnitude threshold Mthres=5.0 as in Ref.[5]. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations κ1 of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than M8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [6] that similar minima of seismicity order parameter fluctuations had been observed before all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Finally, we examine the statistical significance of the results by using ROC graphs [7,8] and the proposed prediction method has a p-value to occur by chance well below 0.1{\%}. The hit rate is 100{\%} with a false alarm rate only 6.67{\%}. An attempt to lower the target earthquake magnitude threshold will be also presented.",
    author = "Stavros Christopoulos and N.V. Sarlis and E.S. Skordas",
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    T1 - Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity using GCMT catalogue in global scale

    AU - Christopoulos, Stavros

    AU - Sarlis, N.V.

    AU - Skordas, E.S.

    PY - 2016/4/22

    Y1 - 2016/4/22

    N2 - It has been recently shown [1,2] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. The identification of this correlation became possible when studying the variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity[3,4]. In the present study, we focus on the behaviour of the fluctuations of κ1 before major earthquakes using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue for a magnitude threshold Mthres=5.0 as in Ref.[5]. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations κ1 of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than M8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [6] that similar minima of seismicity order parameter fluctuations had been observed before all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Finally, we examine the statistical significance of the results by using ROC graphs [7,8] and the proposed prediction method has a p-value to occur by chance well below 0.1%. The hit rate is 100% with a false alarm rate only 6.67%. An attempt to lower the target earthquake magnitude threshold will be also presented.

    AB - It has been recently shown [1,2] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. The identification of this correlation became possible when studying the variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity[3,4]. In the present study, we focus on the behaviour of the fluctuations of κ1 before major earthquakes using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue for a magnitude threshold Mthres=5.0 as in Ref.[5]. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations κ1 of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than M8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [6] that similar minima of seismicity order parameter fluctuations had been observed before all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Finally, we examine the statistical significance of the results by using ROC graphs [7,8] and the proposed prediction method has a p-value to occur by chance well below 0.1%. The hit rate is 100% with a false alarm rate only 6.67%. An attempt to lower the target earthquake magnitude threshold will be also presented.

    M3 - Abstract

    ER -