Stochastic Dynamics of Fusion Low-to-High Confinement Mode (L-H) Transition: Correlation and Causal Analyses Using Information Geometry

We investigate the stochastic dynamics of the prey–predator model of the Low-to-High confinement mode (L-H) transition in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. By considering stochas- tic noise in the turbulence and zonal flows as well as constant and time-varying input power Q, we perform multiple stochastic simulations of over a million trajectories using GPU computing. Due to stochastic noise, some trajectories undergo the L-H transition while others do not, leading to a mixture of H-mode and dithering at a given time and/or input power. One of the consequences of this is that H-mode characteristics appear at a smaller input power Q < Qc (where Qc is the critical value for the L-H transition in the deterministic system) as a secondary peak of a probability density function (PDF) while dithering characteristics persists beyond the power threshold for Q > Qc as a second peak. The coexisting H-mode and dithering near Q = Qc leads to a prominent bimodal PDF with a gradual L-H transition rather than a sudden transition at Q = Qc and uncertainty in the input power. Also, a time-dependent input power leads to increased variability (dispersion) in stochastic trajectories and a more prominent bimodal PDF. We provide an interpretation of the results using information geometry to elucidate self-regulation between zonal flows, turbulence, and information causality rate to unravel causal relations involved in the L-H transition.