Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on critical healthcare capacity

Diego F. Cuadros, Yanyu Xiao, Zindoga Mukandavire, Esteban Correa-Agudelo, Andrés Hernández, Hana Kim, Neil J. MacKinnon

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Abstract

The role of geospatial disparities in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood. We developed a spatially-explicit mathematical model to simulate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 disease infection in relation with the uneven distribution of the healthcare capacity in Ohio, U.S. The results showed substantial spatial variation in the spread of the disease, with localized areas showing marked differences in disease attack rates. Higher COVID-19 attack rates experienced in some highly connected and urbanized areas (274 cases per 100,000 people) could substantially impact the critical health care response of these areas regardless of their potentially high healthcare capacity compared to more rural and less connected counterparts (85 cases per 100,000). Accounting for the spatially uneven disease diffusion linked to the geographical distribution of the critical care resources is essential in designing effective prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.
Original languageEnglish
Article number102404
Number of pages7
JournalHealth and Place
Volume64
Early online date25 Jul 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020

Bibliographical note

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Spatially-explicit mathematical model
  • Transport connectivity
  • Spatial epidemiology
  • Critical healthcare capacity

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