Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on critical healthcare capacity

Diego F. Cuadros, Yanyu Xiao, Zindoga Mukandavire, Esteban Correa-Agudelo, Andrés Hernández, Hana Kim, Neil J. MacKinnon

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    20 Citations (Scopus)
    14 Downloads (Pure)


    The role of geospatial disparities in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is poorly understood. We developed a spatially-explicit mathematical model to simulate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 disease infection in relation with the uneven distribution of the healthcare capacity in Ohio, U.S. The results showed substantial spatial variation in the spread of the disease, with localized areas showing marked differences in disease attack rates. Higher COVID-19 attack rates experienced in some highly connected and urbanized areas (274 cases per 100,000 people) could substantially impact the critical health care response of these areas regardless of their potentially high healthcare capacity compared to more rural and less connected counterparts (85 cases per 100,000). Accounting for the spatially uneven disease diffusion linked to the geographical distribution of the critical care resources is essential in designing effective prevention and control programmes aimed at reducing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number102404
    Number of pages7
    JournalHealth and Place
    Early online date25 Jul 2020
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020

    Bibliographical note

    This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.


    • COVID-19
    • Critical healthcare capacity
    • Spatial epidemiology
    • Spatially-explicit mathematical model
    • Transport connectivity

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Health(social science)
    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Life-span and Life-course Studies


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