Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

J.V.L. Hunt; D.R. Lombardi; S. Atkinson; A.R.G. Barber; M. Barnes; C.T. Boyko; J. Brown; J. Bryson; D. Butler; Silvio Caputo; M. Caserio; R. Coles; R.F.D. Cooper; R. Farmani; Mark Gaterell; J. Hale; C. Hales; C.N. Hewitt; L. Jankovic; I. Jefferson; J. Leach; A.R. MacKenzie; F.A. Memon; J.P. Sadler; C. Weingaertner; J.D. Whyatt; C.D.F. Rogers

doi:10.3390/su4040740

Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

J.V.L. Hunt, D.R. Lombardi, S. Atkinson, A.R.G. Barber, M. Barnes, C.T. Boyko, J. Brown, J. Bryson, D. Butler, Silvio Caputo, M. Caserio, R. Coles, R.F.D. Cooper, R. Farmani, Mark Gaterell, J. Hale, C. Hales, C.N. Hewitt, L. Jankovic, I. JeffersonJ. Leach, A.R. MacKenzie, F.A. Memon, J.P. Sadler, C. Weingaertner, J.D. Whyatt, C.D.F. Rogers

University of Birmingham

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91 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	740-772
Journal	Sustainability
Volume	4
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740
Publication status	Published - 2012

Bibliographical note

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License unported 3.0 which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ for full license terms.

Keywords

sustainability
future scenarios
scenario archetypes

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10.3390/su4040740

Scenario archetypesFinal published version, 532 KB

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Hunt, J. V. L., Lombardi, D. R., Atkinson, S., Barber, A. R. G., Barnes, M., Boyko, C. T., Brown, J., Bryson, J., Butler, D., Caputo, S., Caserio, M., Coles, R., Cooper, R. F. D., Farmani, R., Gaterell, M., Hale, J., Hales, C., Hewitt, C. N., Jankovic, L., ... Rogers, C. D. F. (2012). Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability, 4(4), 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

Hunt, JVL, Lombardi, DR, Atkinson, S, Barber, ARG, Barnes, M, Boyko, CT, Brown, J, Bryson, J, Butler, D, Caputo, S, Caserio, M, Coles, R, Cooper, RFD, Farmani, R, Gaterell, M, Hale, J, Hales, C, Hewitt, CN, Jankovic, L, Jefferson, I, Leach, J, MacKenzie, AR, Memon, FA, Sadler, JP, Weingaertner, C, Whyatt, JD & Rogers, CDF 2012, 'Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes', Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

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AU - Brown, J.

AU - Bryson, J.

AU - Butler, D.

AU - Caputo, Silvio

AU - Caserio, M.

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AU - MacKenzie, A.R.

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N2 - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

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SP - 740

EP - 772

JO - Sustainability

JF - Sustainability

IS - 4

ER -

Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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