Abstract
The insurance sector needs this kind of analysis to achieve more precise pricing in insurance products. COPD prevalence may exhibit spatial autocorrelation due to the spatial proximity of the provinces. Hence understanding of spatial patterns of COPD prevalence may provide better actuarial decisions. In this research, the common risk factors for COPD are considered to be tobacco sales, air pollution, urbanization, gross schooling rate, life expectancy, median age and GDP per capita for the provinces. The spatial patterns of these factors in Turkey as well as their correlations with COPD prevalence are explored.
It has been observed that the parameters show spatial autocorrelation. On the basis of the autocorrelations, financial risk assessment calculations are made with respect to the provinces.
Since the analysis could not have been made on the basis of individuals, and financial burdens of morbidities for insurance companies are not given clearly, it is not possible to calculate any health insurance product premium. However, the results obtained provide prior information for the calculations for health insurance products.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 413-424 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics |
| Volume | 259 |
| Issue number | Part B |
| Early online date | 29 Aug 2013 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Mar 2014 |
| Externally published | Yes |
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Keywords
- Spatial regression
- Modeling
- Risk assessment
- Risk mapping
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
Cite this
Risk Analysis Based on Spatial Analysis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) With Respect to Provinces in Turkey. / Ciftci, Sezgin; Duzgun, Sebnem ; Basbug Erkan, Burcak.
In: Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 259, No. Part B, 15.03.2014, p. 413-424.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk Analysis Based on Spatial Analysis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) With Respect to Provinces in Turkey
AU - Ciftci, Sezgin
AU - Duzgun, Sebnem
AU - Basbug Erkan, Burcak
PY - 2014/3/15
Y1 - 2014/3/15
N2 - The goal of this study is to analyze and understand the risks of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with respect to the provinces of Turkey according to the results of spatial analysis.The insurance sector needs this kind of analysis to achieve more precise pricing in insurance products. COPD prevalence may exhibit spatial autocorrelation due to the spatial proximity of the provinces. Hence understanding of spatial patterns of COPD prevalence may provide better actuarial decisions. In this research, the common risk factors for COPD are considered to be tobacco sales, air pollution, urbanization, gross schooling rate, life expectancy, median age and GDP per capita for the provinces. The spatial patterns of these factors in Turkey as well as their correlations with COPD prevalence are explored.It has been observed that the parameters show spatial autocorrelation. On the basis of the autocorrelations, financial risk assessment calculations are made with respect to the provinces.Since the analysis could not have been made on the basis of individuals, and financial burdens of morbidities for insurance companies are not given clearly, it is not possible to calculate any health insurance product premium. However, the results obtained provide prior information for the calculations for health insurance products.
AB - The goal of this study is to analyze and understand the risks of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with respect to the provinces of Turkey according to the results of spatial analysis.The insurance sector needs this kind of analysis to achieve more precise pricing in insurance products. COPD prevalence may exhibit spatial autocorrelation due to the spatial proximity of the provinces. Hence understanding of spatial patterns of COPD prevalence may provide better actuarial decisions. In this research, the common risk factors for COPD are considered to be tobacco sales, air pollution, urbanization, gross schooling rate, life expectancy, median age and GDP per capita for the provinces. The spatial patterns of these factors in Turkey as well as their correlations with COPD prevalence are explored.It has been observed that the parameters show spatial autocorrelation. On the basis of the autocorrelations, financial risk assessment calculations are made with respect to the provinces.Since the analysis could not have been made on the basis of individuals, and financial burdens of morbidities for insurance companies are not given clearly, it is not possible to calculate any health insurance product premium. However, the results obtained provide prior information for the calculations for health insurance products.
KW - Spatial regression
KW - Modeling
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Risk mapping
KW - Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
U2 - 10.1016/j.cam.2013.08.023
DO - 10.1016/j.cam.2013.08.023
M3 - Article
VL - 259
SP - 413
EP - 424
JO - Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
JF - Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
IS - Part B
ER -