Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring

Simplice A. Asongu; J. Nwachukwu

doi:10.1007/s00181-015-1013-0

Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring

Simplice A. Asongu
, J. Nwachukwu

African Governance and Development Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

140 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs, and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the generalized methods of moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socioeconomic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	439-489
Number of pages	51
Journal	Empirical Economics
Volume	51
Issue number	2
Early online date	29 Oct 2015
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1013-0
Publication status	Published - Sept 2016

Bibliographical note

This paper is not available on the repository

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Arab Spring
Political instability
Timing
Economic growth

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10.1007/s00181-015-1013-0

Cite this

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abstract = "The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs, and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the generalized methods of moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socioeconomic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.",

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KW - Political instability

KW - Timing

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Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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