Abstract
We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 051136 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics |
Volume | 85 |
Issue number | 5 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 25 May 2012 |
Externally published | Yes |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Condensed Matter Physics
- Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
- Statistics and Probability