### Abstract

We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.

Original language | English |
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Article number | 051136 |

Number of pages | 8 |

Journal | Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics |

Volume | 85 |

Issue number | 5 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 25 May 2012 |

Externally published | Yes |

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### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Condensed Matter Physics
- Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
- Statistics and Probability

### Cite this

**Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications.** / Sarlis, N. V.; Christopoulos, S. R G.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Predictability of the coherent-noise model and its applications

AU - Sarlis, N. V.

AU - Christopoulos, S. R G

PY - 2012/5/25

Y1 - 2012/5/25

N2 - We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.

AB - We study the threshold distribution function of the coherent-noise model for the case of infinite number of agents. This function is piecewise constant with a finite number of steps n. The latter exhibits a 1/f behavior as a function of the order of occurrence of an avalanche and hence versus natural time. An analytic expression of the expectation value E(S) for the size S of the next avalanche is obtained and used for the prediction of the next avalanche. Apart from E(S), the number of steps n can also serve for this purpose. This enables the construction of a similar prediction scheme which can be applied to real earthquake aftershock data.

U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevE.85.051136

DO - 10.1103/PhysRevE.85.051136

M3 - Article

VL - 85

JO - Physical Review E

JF - Physical Review E

SN - 1539-3755

IS - 5

M1 - 051136

ER -