Observed changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation fires in South Asia

South Asia is one of several regions of the world where vegetation fire has emerged as a prominent environmental and societal hazard during recent decades. Building resilience to high-impact fire episodes, particularly in a warming climate, requires greater knowledge of the changing nature of fire regimes on both spatial and temporal scales. This is especially true in South Asia, a region that, until recently, has not exhibited a strong susceptibility to fire. This study presents an analysis of recent changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation fire across South Asia using satellite-derived data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer between 2001 and 2023. The results reveal significant increases in both fire frequency and intensity across much of the study region. The analysis also seeks to identify hitherto unexplored changes in the within-year timing of fire occurrence, given the challenges that such changes pose to resource allocation and preparedness. While the results indicate a shift towards an earlier occurrence of the annual peak in fire incidence across many parts of India and Pakistan, there is evidence that fire activity is occurring later in the year in other areas, highlighting the additional degree of vulnerability faced by these two countries. When considering fire occurrence within homogeneous ecoregions, positive trends are strongest for the dry deciduous forests of central and southern India. The conclusions recommend further investigation of the implications for future fire management and effective decision-making in the face of changing fire risk.