Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 exposure in closed-environments using agent-based modelling

Ammar Al Bazi, Faris Madi Hamdan Madi, Anees Abu Monshar, Yousif Eliya, Tunde Adediran, Khaled Al Khudir

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Businesses can play a key role in reducing exposure to COVID-19 in closed environments. This is possible by assessing the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) in mitigating disease exposure. This study aims to assess the impact of NPIs on COVID-19 exposure in closed environments. This is achieved by proposing an innovative COVID-19 exposure prediction framework. The developed framework consists of three modules: Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) approach, Clustering Module (CM), and Decision Tree (DT) technique. The framework also integrates these modules considering the exposure time factor to identify the level of exposure to COVID-19 in closed environments. A supermarket based in Jordan is considered a case study to test the applicability of the proposed framework in predicting exposure levels and numbers. The impact of Individual and combined NPIs application in closed environment facilities is assessed based on the exposure level and other OIs such as opening time, body temperature measurement, and the number of people inside the supermarket. Key results show that wearing Mask, Face Shield and leaving Social Distance guarantees no exposure to COVID-19 and increases the safety level to 61.9% in a closed environment such as supermarkets with a potential exposure rate of up to 28.5% if otherwise.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)(In-Press)
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Healthcare Management
Volume(In-Press)
Early online date15 Mar 2023
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 15 Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

  • Agent-based modelling
  • closed environment facilities
  • COVID-19 exposure prediction framework
  • decision tree
  • non-pharmaceutical interventions

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Leadership and Management
  • Health Policy

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