Modelling and simulation of a supply chain in an uncertain environment

Dobrila Petrovic, Rajat Roy, Radivoj Petrovic

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    247 Citations (Scopus)


    This paper describes fuzzy modelling and simulation of a supply chain (SC) in an uncertain environment, as the first step in developing a decision support system. An SC is viewed as a series of facilities that performs the procurement of raw material, its transformation to intermediate and end-products, and distribution and selling of the end-products to customers. All the facilities in the SC are coupled and interrelated in a way that decisions made at one facility affect the performance of others. SC fuzzy models and a simulator cover operational SC control. The objective is to determine the stock levels and order quantities for each inventory in an SC during a finite time horizon to obtain an acceptable delivery performance at a reasonable total cost for the whole SC. Two sources of uncertainty inherent in the external environment in which the SC operates were identified and modelled: customer demand and external supply of raw material. They were interpreted and represented by fuzzy sets. In addition to the fuzzy SC models, a special SC simulator was developed. The SC simulator provides a dynamic view of the SC and assesses the impact of decisions recom-mended by the SC fuzzy models on SC performance. 

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)299-309
    Number of pages11
    JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 1998


    • Fuzzy sets
    • Inventory
    • Manufacturing
    • Simulation

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Information Systems and Management
    • Management Science and Operations Research
    • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
    • Applied Mathematics
    • Modelling and Simulation
    • Transportation


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