Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment

Hugo Abi  Karam; Matthew Blackett; Raphaella Barros Pereira  da Silva; Jose Luis Flores  Rojas; Augusto José Pereira  Filho; Cesar Arturo Sanchez  Peña; Isela Leonor Vásquez  Panduro; Brenda Santos  Siqueira; Julio Miguel Angeles  Suazo

doi:10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_57297

Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment

Hugo Abi Karam, Matthew Blackett, Raphaella Barros Pereira da Silva, Jose Luis Flores Rojas, Augusto José Pereira Filho, Cesar Arturo Sanchez Peña, Isela Leonor Vásquez Panduro, Brenda Santos Siqueira, Julio Miguel Angeles Suazo

School of Energy, Construction and Environment

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Abstract

The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain

Original language	English
Article number	47
Number of pages	16
Journal	Anuário do Instituto de Geociências
Volume	57297
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_57297
Publication status	Published - 22 Mar 2024

Bibliographical note

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited..

Funder

The CONFAP/British Council cooperation program facilitated the visit of the second author to Brazil for a brief period (FAPERJ Process No. E-26/203104/2019)

Keywords

R-TopModel
Hydrometeorological hazards
Carsington Water-UK

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https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_57297

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Karam, H. A., Blackett, M., da Silva, R. B. P., Rojas, J. L. F., Filho, A. J. P., Peña, C. A. S., Panduro, I. L. V., Siqueira, B. S., & Suazo, J. M. A. (2024). Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment. Anuário do Instituto de Geociências, 57297, Article 47. https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_57297

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abstract = "The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain",

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N2 - The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain

AB - The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain

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Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment

Abstract

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Keywords

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