Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity

N.V. Sarlis, S-R. Christopoulos, E.S. Skordas

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    Abstract

    It has been recently shown [N. V. Sarlis, Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011) and N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance κ 1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity. Here, we study the fluctuations of this order parameter using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for a magnitude threshold Mthres  = 5.0 and focus on its behavior before major earthquakes. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [N. V. Sarlis et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 13734 (2013)] that similar minima of the seismicity order parameter fluctuations had preceded all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Moreover, on the basis of these minima a statistically significant binary prediction method for earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4 with hit rate 100% and false alarm rate 6.67% is suggested.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalChaos
    Volume25
    Issue numberArticle number 063110
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Jun 2015

    Fingerprint

    Earthquake
    Order Parameter
    Earthquakes
    earthquakes
    Fluctuations
    False Alarm Rate
    false alarms
    Centroid
    Hits
    Japan
    Chaos theory
    centroids
    catalogs
    Tensors
    chaos
    Chaos
    Tensor
    tensors
    Binary
    Moment

    Bibliographical note

    Copyright 2015 AIP Publishing. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and AIP Publishing. The following article appeared in Sarlis, N.V. , Christopoulos, S-R. and Skordas, E.S. (2015) Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity. Chaos, volume 25 (Article number 063110) and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4922300 .

    Cite this

    Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity. / Sarlis, N.V.; Christopoulos, S-R.; Skordas, E.S.

    In: Chaos, Vol. 25, No. Article number 063110, 06.2015.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Sarlis, N.V. ; Christopoulos, S-R. ; Skordas, E.S. / Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity. In: Chaos. 2015 ; Vol. 25, No. Article number 063110.
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