Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Planning Approach

Abiodun Adegbile, David Sarpong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Scenario development is widely used to reduce un- certainty while making decisions in high velocity en- vironments. Despite this fact, managerial fixation on
short term performance objectives, their penchant fear
of the unpredictable future and their sheer inability to
face the alternative futures generated in the scenario
planning exercises has led to little value capture from
this activity.
The paper analyzes the factors that determine the willingness
of decision-makers, to be actively involved in
scenario planning. The authors suggest that effective
incentives to promote the interest in this activity and its
impact can be found, if we consider the decision-makers,
as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, expectations,
and competencies. In particular, the paper hypothesizes and validates the assumptions that the selection of ap- propriate targets for scenario planning, commitment to
achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, in- creasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises
are more likely to be expressed in the growing interest
of managers and stakeholders to develop scenarios.
The presented results are tested on the most common
— intuitive logic approach to scenario planning.
The authors expect future research to go further to empirically
test the proposed hypotheses, and if possible,
ascertain whether similar hypotheses could be generated
in the context of other tried and tested scenario
planning methodologies such as the probabilistic mod- ified trends, competitive intelligence and cross impact
analysis.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)73-80
Number of pages8
JournalForesight and STI Governance
Volume9
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Keywords

  • strategic foresight
  • scenario planning
  • intuitive logics
  • methodology
  • conceptual consumption

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