Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Planning Approach

Abiodun Adegbile, David Sarpong

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    5 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Scenario development is widely used to reduce un- certainty while making decisions in high velocity en- vironments. Despite this fact, managerial fixation on
    short term performance objectives, their penchant fear
    of the unpredictable future and their sheer inability to
    face the alternative futures generated in the scenario
    planning exercises has led to little value capture from
    this activity.
    The paper analyzes the factors that determine the willingness
    of decision-makers, to be actively involved in
    scenario planning. The authors suggest that effective
    incentives to promote the interest in this activity and its
    impact can be found, if we consider the decision-makers,
    as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, expectations,
    and competencies. In particular, the paper hypothesizes and validates the assumptions that the selection of ap- propriate targets for scenario planning, commitment to
    achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, in- creasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises
    are more likely to be expressed in the growing interest
    of managers and stakeholders to develop scenarios.
    The presented results are tested on the most common
    — intuitive logic approach to scenario planning.
    The authors expect future research to go further to empirically
    test the proposed hypotheses, and if possible,
    ascertain whether similar hypotheses could be generated
    in the context of other tried and tested scenario
    planning methodologies such as the probabilistic mod- ified trends, competitive intelligence and cross impact
    analysis.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)73-80
    Number of pages8
    JournalForesight and STI Governance
    Volume9
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Keywords

    • strategic foresight
    • scenario planning
    • intuitive logics
    • methodology
    • conceptual consumption

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