Linking serial sexual offences: Moving towards an ecologically valid test of the principles of crime linkage

Jessica Woodhams, Matthew Tonkin, Amy Burrell, Hanne Imre, Jan Winter, Eva Lam, Gert Jan ten Brinke, Mark Webb, Gerard Labuschagne, Craig Bennell, Leah Ashmore-Hills, Jasper van der Kemp, Sami Lipponen, Tom Pakkanen, Lee Rainbow, Gabrielle Salfati, Pekka Santtila

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Purpose: To conduct a test of the principles underpinning crime linkage (behavioural consistency and distinctiveness) with a sample more closely reflecting the volume and nature of sexual crimes with which practitioners work, and to assess whether solved series are characterized by greater behavioural similarity than unsolved series. Method: A sample of 3,364 sexual crimes (including 668 series) was collated from five countries. For the first time, the sample included solved and unsolved but linked-by-DNA sexual offence series, as well as solved one-off offences. All possible crime pairings in the data set were created, and the degree of similarity in crime scene behaviour shared by the crimes in each pair was quantified using Jaccard's coefficient. The ability to distinguish same-offender and different-offender pairs using similarity in crime scene behaviour was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. The relative amount of behavioural similarity and distinctiveness seen in solved and unsolved crime pairs was assessed. Results: An Area Under the Curve of.86 was found, which represents an excellent level of discrimination accuracy. This decreased to.85 when using a data set that contained one-off offences, and both one-off offences and unsolved crime series. Discrimination accuracy also decreased when using a sample composed solely of unsolved but linked-by-DNA series (AUC =.79). Conclusions: Crime linkage is practised by police forces globally, and its use in legal proceedings requires demonstration that its underlying principles are reliable. Support was found for its two underpinning principles with a more ecologically valid sample.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)123-140
Number of pages18
JournalLegal and Criminological Psychology
Volume24
Issue number1
Early online date15 Dec 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2019

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Crime
Area Under Curve
DNA
Police
ROC Curve

Bibliographical note

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

Keywords

  • assumptions
  • behavioural linking
  • case linkage
  • comparative case analysis
  • linkage analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Applied Psychology

Cite this

Linking serial sexual offences : Moving towards an ecologically valid test of the principles of crime linkage. / Woodhams, Jessica; Tonkin, Matthew; Burrell, Amy; Imre, Hanne; Winter, Jan; Lam, Eva; ten Brinke, Gert Jan; Webb, Mark; Labuschagne, Gerard; Bennell, Craig; Ashmore-Hills, Leah; van der Kemp, Jasper; Lipponen, Sami; Pakkanen, Tom; Rainbow, Lee; Salfati, Gabrielle; Santtila, Pekka.

In: Legal and Criminological Psychology, Vol. 24, No. 1, 02.2019, p. 123-140.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Woodhams, J, Tonkin, M, Burrell, A, Imre, H, Winter, J, Lam, E, ten Brinke, GJ, Webb, M, Labuschagne, G, Bennell, C, Ashmore-Hills, L, van der Kemp, J, Lipponen, S, Pakkanen, T, Rainbow, L, Salfati, G & Santtila, P 2019, 'Linking serial sexual offences: Moving towards an ecologically valid test of the principles of crime linkage' Legal and Criminological Psychology, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 123-140. https://doi.org/10.1111/lcrp.12144
Woodhams, Jessica ; Tonkin, Matthew ; Burrell, Amy ; Imre, Hanne ; Winter, Jan ; Lam, Eva ; ten Brinke, Gert Jan ; Webb, Mark ; Labuschagne, Gerard ; Bennell, Craig ; Ashmore-Hills, Leah ; van der Kemp, Jasper ; Lipponen, Sami ; Pakkanen, Tom ; Rainbow, Lee ; Salfati, Gabrielle ; Santtila, Pekka. / Linking serial sexual offences : Moving towards an ecologically valid test of the principles of crime linkage. In: Legal and Criminological Psychology. 2019 ; Vol. 24, No. 1. pp. 123-140.
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