Intraday and Interday Distribution of Stock Returns and their Asymmetric Conditional Volatility: Firm-Level Evidence

Ercan Balaban, Tolga Ozgen, Socrates Karidis

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper is a pioneering effort to jointly analyze the intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric time varying volatility using firm level data from an emerging stock market, namely, the Bourse Istanbul. The joint intraday and interday distribution analysis is based on the two trading sessions with a two-hour lunch break and the trading days of week. The asymmetric time varying volatility is based on the Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean [TGARCH(1,1)-M] model with systematic risk entering the return generating process. This is a unique framework to simultaneously test (i) the weak-form informational efficiency, (ii) the conditional total risk-return relationship and the systematic risk effects, and (iii) volatility persistence and asymmetry in volatility. The firm level intraday data sets are used for the period 1995 to 2015. Firstly, a strong result can be pronounced for a positive return effect for the second trading session of Thursdays followed by the second session of Fridays. The first session of Wednesdays is more associated with a stock price decline. The volatility is the highest in the second session of Mondays. Although the second session of Thursdays sees a volatility increase referring to a positive risk-return relationship, Fridays do not have any significant volatility increase. This can be seen as a true anomaly where we could observe higher returns with lower volatility. Secondly, it can be concluded that only the systematic risk is priced for the great majority of the selected firms. In addition, we cannot observe a significant asymmetry in the volatility in most cases. Finally, it is found that the financial companies have a significantly higher systematic risk than the industrial companies.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)905-915
Number of pages11
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume503
Early online date21 Feb 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2018

Fingerprint

Stock Returns
volatility
Volatility
Asymmetry
Time-varying
asymmetry
Emerging Markets
Business
Evidence
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity
Stock Prices
Stock Market
Persistence
Anomaly
emerging
anomalies
thresholds

Cite this

@article{2e960b4214b84f0aa82271fb4ecdadcf,
title = "Intraday and Interday Distribution of Stock Returns and their Asymmetric Conditional Volatility: Firm-Level Evidence",
abstract = "This paper is a pioneering effort to jointly analyze the intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric time varying volatility using firm level data from an emerging stock market, namely, the Bourse Istanbul. The joint intraday and interday distribution analysis is based on the two trading sessions with a two-hour lunch break and the trading days of week. The asymmetric time varying volatility is based on the Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean [TGARCH(1,1)-M] model with systematic risk entering the return generating process. This is a unique framework to simultaneously test (i) the weak-form informational efficiency, (ii) the conditional total risk-return relationship and the systematic risk effects, and (iii) volatility persistence and asymmetry in volatility. The firm level intraday data sets are used for the period 1995 to 2015. Firstly, a strong result can be pronounced for a positive return effect for the second trading session of Thursdays followed by the second session of Fridays. The first session of Wednesdays is more associated with a stock price decline. The volatility is the highest in the second session of Mondays. Although the second session of Thursdays sees a volatility increase referring to a positive risk-return relationship, Fridays do not have any significant volatility increase. This can be seen as a true anomaly where we could observe higher returns with lower volatility. Secondly, it can be concluded that only the systematic risk is priced for the great majority of the selected firms. In addition, we cannot observe a significant asymmetry in the volatility in most cases. Finally, it is found that the financial companies have a significantly higher systematic risk than the industrial companies.",
author = "Ercan Balaban and Tolga Ozgen and Socrates Karidis",
year = "2018",
month = "8",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.116",
language = "English",
volume = "503",
pages = "905--915",
journal = "Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications",
issn = "0378-4371",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Intraday and Interday Distribution of Stock Returns and their Asymmetric Conditional Volatility: Firm-Level Evidence

AU - Balaban, Ercan

AU - Ozgen, Tolga

AU - Karidis, Socrates

PY - 2018/8/1

Y1 - 2018/8/1

N2 - This paper is a pioneering effort to jointly analyze the intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric time varying volatility using firm level data from an emerging stock market, namely, the Bourse Istanbul. The joint intraday and interday distribution analysis is based on the two trading sessions with a two-hour lunch break and the trading days of week. The asymmetric time varying volatility is based on the Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean [TGARCH(1,1)-M] model with systematic risk entering the return generating process. This is a unique framework to simultaneously test (i) the weak-form informational efficiency, (ii) the conditional total risk-return relationship and the systematic risk effects, and (iii) volatility persistence and asymmetry in volatility. The firm level intraday data sets are used for the period 1995 to 2015. Firstly, a strong result can be pronounced for a positive return effect for the second trading session of Thursdays followed by the second session of Fridays. The first session of Wednesdays is more associated with a stock price decline. The volatility is the highest in the second session of Mondays. Although the second session of Thursdays sees a volatility increase referring to a positive risk-return relationship, Fridays do not have any significant volatility increase. This can be seen as a true anomaly where we could observe higher returns with lower volatility. Secondly, it can be concluded that only the systematic risk is priced for the great majority of the selected firms. In addition, we cannot observe a significant asymmetry in the volatility in most cases. Finally, it is found that the financial companies have a significantly higher systematic risk than the industrial companies.

AB - This paper is a pioneering effort to jointly analyze the intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric time varying volatility using firm level data from an emerging stock market, namely, the Bourse Istanbul. The joint intraday and interday distribution analysis is based on the two trading sessions with a two-hour lunch break and the trading days of week. The asymmetric time varying volatility is based on the Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-in-Mean [TGARCH(1,1)-M] model with systematic risk entering the return generating process. This is a unique framework to simultaneously test (i) the weak-form informational efficiency, (ii) the conditional total risk-return relationship and the systematic risk effects, and (iii) volatility persistence and asymmetry in volatility. The firm level intraday data sets are used for the period 1995 to 2015. Firstly, a strong result can be pronounced for a positive return effect for the second trading session of Thursdays followed by the second session of Fridays. The first session of Wednesdays is more associated with a stock price decline. The volatility is the highest in the second session of Mondays. Although the second session of Thursdays sees a volatility increase referring to a positive risk-return relationship, Fridays do not have any significant volatility increase. This can be seen as a true anomaly where we could observe higher returns with lower volatility. Secondly, it can be concluded that only the systematic risk is priced for the great majority of the selected firms. In addition, we cannot observe a significant asymmetry in the volatility in most cases. Finally, it is found that the financial companies have a significantly higher systematic risk than the industrial companies.

U2 - 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.116

DO - 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.116

M3 - Article

VL - 503

SP - 905

EP - 915

JO - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

JF - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

SN - 0378-4371

ER -