Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: a very recent case

P.A. Varotsos; N.V. Sarlis; E.S. Skordas; S-R. Christopoulos; M.S. Lazaridou-Varotsos

doi:10.1007/s11589-015-0122-3

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: a very recent case

P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, S-R. Christopoulos, M.S. Lazaridou-Varotsos

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Abstract

The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an M W 5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	215-222
Journal	Earthquake Science
Volume	28
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-015-0122-3
Publication status	Published - Jun 2015

Bibliographical note

Copyright The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

Keywords

Seismic electric signals
Natural time analysis
Earthquake prediction
Critical phenomena

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abstract = "The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an M W 5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014. ",

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AU - Varotsos, P.A.

AU - Sarlis, N.V.

AU - Skordas, E.S.

AU - Christopoulos, S-R.

AU - Lazaridou-Varotsos, M.S.

N1 - Copyright The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

PY - 2015/6

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N2 - The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an M W 5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014.

AB - The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals (SES) activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an M W 5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock (which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century) was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point (mainshock occurrence) early in the morning on 15 November 2014.

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KW - Natural time analysis

KW - Earthquake prediction

KW - Critical phenomena

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JO - Earthquake Science

JF - Earthquake Science

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ER -

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock: a very recent case

Abstract

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Keywords

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