Abstract
Publisher Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Review of Financial Analysis. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Financial Analysis, [60, (2016)] DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001
© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 176-191 |
| Journal | International Review of Financial Analysis |
| Volume | 54 |
| Early online date | 23 Dec 2016 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2017 |
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Bibliographical note
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Review of Financial Analysis. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Financial Analysis, [60, (2016)] DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Keywords
- Energy markets
- Metal markets
- Hedging pressure
- Speculative pressure
- Spot and futures relationship
- Hedging performance
Cite this
Hedging and speculative pressures and the transition of the spot-futures relationship in energy and metal markets. / Park, Jin Suk; Shi, Y.
In: International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 54, 01.11.2017, p. 176-191.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Hedging and speculative pressures and the transition of the spot-futures relationship in energy and metal markets
AU - Park, Jin Suk
AU - Shi, Y.
N1 - NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Review of Financial Analysis. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Financial Analysis, [60, (2016)] DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001 © 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
PY - 2017/11/1
Y1 - 2017/11/1
N2 - This paper examines the impact of hedging and speculative pressures on the transition of the spot-futures relationship in metal and energy markets. We build a Markov regime switching (MRS) model where hedging and speculative pressures affect the transition probabilities between a stronger and weaker spot-futures relationship. It is found that hedging pressure increases the likelihood of transition, i.e. destabilises the existing spot-futures relationship, while speculative pressure reduces it, i.e. stabilises the relationship, in the copper, crude oil and natural gas markets, but this effect is relatively weak in the silver and heating oil markets. We also examine whether these findings generate practical benefits by testing the hedging effectiveness of the minimum variance hedge ratios (MVH) derived from the MRS models with hedging and speculative pressures. A relatively strong reduction of the portfolio variance, hedger's utility and value at risk (VaR) is observed in the energy markets.Publisher Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Review of Financial Analysis. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Financial Analysis, [60, (2016)] DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
AB - This paper examines the impact of hedging and speculative pressures on the transition of the spot-futures relationship in metal and energy markets. We build a Markov regime switching (MRS) model where hedging and speculative pressures affect the transition probabilities between a stronger and weaker spot-futures relationship. It is found that hedging pressure increases the likelihood of transition, i.e. destabilises the existing spot-futures relationship, while speculative pressure reduces it, i.e. stabilises the relationship, in the copper, crude oil and natural gas markets, but this effect is relatively weak in the silver and heating oil markets. We also examine whether these findings generate practical benefits by testing the hedging effectiveness of the minimum variance hedge ratios (MVH) derived from the MRS models with hedging and speculative pressures. A relatively strong reduction of the portfolio variance, hedger's utility and value at risk (VaR) is observed in the energy markets.Publisher Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Review of Financial Analysis. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Review of Financial Analysis, [60, (2016)] DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
KW - Energy markets
KW - Metal markets
KW - Hedging pressure
KW - Speculative pressure
KW - Spot and futures relationship
KW - Hedging performance
U2 - 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001
DO - 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.12.001
M3 - Article
VL - 54
SP - 176
EP - 191
JO - International Review of Financial Analysis
JF - International Review of Financial Analysis
SN - 1057-5219
ER -