From political novices to strategists: electoral cycles and the rise of opposition coalitions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Do the iterative nature of elections teach African opposition leaders the art of vote coordination? This article examines the emergence of opposition coalitions in Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) non-consolidated democracies. Drawing on the literature on the democratizing effects of elections and using a historical-comparative approach, it argues that repeated elections foster coalition-building through two key mechanisms. First, elections function as natural experiments, aggregating and disseminating socially verifiable information that reduces consensus decision-making costs within opposition ranks. This process enables the organic emergence of formateurs, streamlining coalition bargaining. Second, repeated elections enhance opposition leaders’ organizational capacity for negotiation, coordination, and cross-ethnic mobilization, reducing associated transaction costs to increase coalition viability. Overall, repeated elections function as a communication device that helps overcome the collective action problems typical at founding elections. We argue that scholars of comparative African politics should move beyond viewing opposition unity as inherently unattainable and instead understand it as gradual, context-dependent adaptation within the electoral landscape. Where coalitions take root, they may lay the groundwork for democratic deepening and a shift towards more nationally politics.