From political novices to strategists: electoral cycles and the rise of opposition coalitions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Do the iterative nature of elections teach African opposition leaders the art of vote coordination? This article examines the emergence of opposition coalitions in Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) unconsolidated democracies. Drawing on the literature on democratizing effect of elections and employing historical-comparative approach, it argues that repeated elections fosters coalition-building through two mechanisms. First, elections operate as natural experiments, generating socially verifiable information that lowers consensus decision costs within opposition ranks. This process streamlines coalition bargains to enable the organic emergence of formateurs. Second, repeated elections build opposition leaders' organizational capacity for negotiation, coordination, and cross-ethnic mobilization, to reduce transaction costs and enhance coalition viability. Repeated elections, thus, function as a communication device that mitigates collective action problems typical at SSA's founding elections. We contend that scholars of African politics should move beyond treating opposition unity as unattainable and rather, view it as a gradual, context-dependent adaptation within the electoral landscapes. Where such coalitions take root, they can lay the foundation for democratic deepening and more nationally oriented politics.