Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists' origin

Daniel Santamaria, Dimitrios Gounoploulos, Dimitris Petmezas

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

23 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)641-666
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume39
Issue number2
Early online date26 Oct 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2012
Externally publishedYes

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macroeconomics
Greece
tourist
tourism
response analysis
Tourism
cost of living
demand
unemployment
smoothing
confidence
cost
Tourists
Macroeconomic shocks
forecast
Tourism demand
Impulse response analysis

Cite this

Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists' origin. / Santamaria, Daniel; Gounoploulos, Dimitrios; Petmezas, Dimitris.

In: Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 39, No. 2, 04.2012, p. 641-666.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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