Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists' origin

Dimitrios Gounoploulos, Dimitris Petmezas, Daniel Santamaria

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

27 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)641-666
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume39
Issue number2
Early online date26 Oct 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2012
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Annals of Tourism Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Annals of Tourism Research, 39:2 (2012) DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2011.09.001

© 2011, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Keywords

  • tourist arrivals
  • macroeconomic shocks
  • ARIMA
  • Holt’s exponential model with trend
  • double exponential smoothing
  • impulse response function

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