Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models: Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery

Filipa Da Silva Fernandes, Charalampos Stasinakis, Zivile Zekaite

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

1 Citation (Scopus)
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Abstract

This study investigates the predictability of European long-term government bond spreads through the application of heuristic and metaheuristic support vector regression (SVR) hybrid structures. Genetic, krill herd and sine–cosine algorithms are applied to the parameterization process of the SVR and locally weighted SVR (LSVR) methods. The inputs of the SVR models are selected from a large pool of linear and non-linear individual predictors. The statistical performance of the main models is evaluated against a random walk, an Autoregressive Moving Average, the best individual prediction model and the traditional SVR and LSVR structures. All models are applied to forecast daily and weekly government bond spreads of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain over the sample period 2000–2017. The results show that the sine–cosine LSVR is outperforming its counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy, while metaheuristic approaches seem to benefit the parameterization process more than the heuristic ones.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)(in press)
Number of pages32
JournalAnnals of Operations Research
Volume(in press)
Early online date15 Mar 2018
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 15 Mar 2018

Fingerprint

Heuristics
Euro zone
Government bonds
Bond spreads
Support vector regression
Metaheuristics
Portugal
Greece
Prediction model
Regression method
Predictors
Ireland
Italy
Random walk
Autoregressive moving average
Spain
Regression model
Predictability

Bibliographical note

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-2808-0

Keywords

  • Government bond spreads
  • Support Vector Regression
  • Krill Herd
  • Sine Cosine Algorithm
  • Eurozone

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

Cite this

Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models : Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery. / Fernandes, Filipa Da Silva ; Stasinakis, Charalampos; Zekaite, Zivile.

In: Annals of Operations Research, Vol. (in press), 15.03.2018, p. (in press).

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Fernandes, FDS, Stasinakis, C & Zekaite, Z 2018, 'Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models: Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery' Annals of Operations Research, vol. (in press), pp. (in press). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-2808-0
Fernandes FDS, Stasinakis C, Zekaite Z. Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models: Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery. Annals of Operations Research. 2018 Mar 15;(in press):(in press). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-2808-0
Fernandes, Filipa Da Silva ; Stasinakis, Charalampos ; Zekaite, Zivile. / Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models : Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery. In: Annals of Operations Research. 2018 ; Vol. (in press). pp. (in press).
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