Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Robert Vautard, Nikolaos Christidis, Andrew Ciavarella, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Omar Bellprat, Bo Christiansen, Ioana Colfescu, Tim Cowan, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Jonathan M. Eden, Mathias Hauser, Gabriele Hegerl, Nils Hempelmann, Katharina Klehmet, Fraser Lott, Cathy Nangini, René Orth, Sabine Radanovics, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & 4 others Peter A. Stott, Simon Tett, Laura Wilcox, Pascal Yiou

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Abstract

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1187-1210
Number of pages24
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume52
Issue number1-2
Early online date19 Apr 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019
Externally publishedYes

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extreme event
stratosphere-troposphere interaction
storm surge
weather
simulation
temperature
pressure field
summer
sea level pressure
atmospheric circulation
cluster analysis
sea surface temperature
evaluation
detection
Europe
climate change
climate
analysis
physical process
trend

Bibliographical note

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Vautard, R., Christidis, N., Ciavarella, A., Alvarez-Castro, C., Bellprat, O., Christiansen, B., ... Yiou, P. (2019). Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics, 52(1-2), 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. / Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan M.; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter A.; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal.

In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, No. 1-2, 01.2019, p. 1187-1210.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Vautard, R, Christidis, N, Ciavarella, A, Alvarez-Castro, C, Bellprat, O, Christiansen, B, Colfescu, I, Cowan, T, Doblas-Reyes, F, Eden, JM, Hauser, M, Hegerl, G, Hempelmann, N, Klehmet, K, Lott, F, Nangini, C, Orth, R, Radanovics, S, Seneviratne, SI, van Oldenborgh, GJ, Stott, PA, Tett, S, Wilcox, L & Yiou, P 2019, 'Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe' Climate Dynamics, vol. 52, no. 1-2, pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Vautard R, Christidis N, Ciavarella A, Alvarez-Castro C, Bellprat O, Christiansen B et al. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics. 2019 Jan;52(1-2):1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Vautard, Robert ; Christidis, Nikolaos ; Ciavarella, Andrew ; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen ; Bellprat, Omar ; Christiansen, Bo ; Colfescu, Ioana ; Cowan, Tim ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco ; Eden, Jonathan M. ; Hauser, Mathias ; Hegerl, Gabriele ; Hempelmann, Nils ; Klehmet, Katharina ; Lott, Fraser ; Nangini, Cathy ; Orth, René ; Radanovics, Sabine ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan ; Stott, Peter A. ; Tett, Simon ; Wilcox, Laura ; Yiou, Pascal. / Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. In: Climate Dynamics. 2019 ; Vol. 52, No. 1-2. pp. 1187-1210.
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