Evaluating waste and scrap trade risks in Belt and Road Initiative countries

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global development strategy with great potential for multilateral trade cooperation and economic growth in Asia, Europe and Africa. Commodities trade volumes across BRI countries have boomed in the last few years. However, the waste and scrap (WaS) trade, an important aspect of global waste management, has received little attention. In recent years, frequent trade frictions and restrictive import policies due to increasing environmental protection awareness have sent massive shocks through the international WaS trade system. Exploring the impacts of shocks on BRI-WaS trade is an important but unexamined research topic that can help ensure the steady operation of WaS recycling. To address this research gap, this study first provides a panoramic view of the BRI-WaS trade network and analyzes its structural relation to the global WaS trade network. Second, the hidden risks in the BRI-WaS trade are revealed by proposed shock propagation models in three real-life scenarios, namely, a unilateral trade disruption, a bilateral trade crash and an import ban. Third, the global circulations conceptual framework is mathematically examined in the BRI regional context. The findings reveal that BRI countries are increasingly important to global WaS trade and that BRI-WaS trade presents a heterogeneous structure with evenly distributed trade channels. The “most at-risk” sources in the BRI-WaS trade network are uncovered. The BRI circulation system is mathematically feasible but eco-ethically infeasible. Discussions are provided to support authorities in developing effective strategies to manage BRI-WaS trade and responses to future extreme disturbances as well as address the global WaS crisis.