Estimating volatility persistence under a Brexit-vote structural break

Tola Adesina

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We model volatility dynamics and explore volatility persistence under a supposed Brexit-vote structural break. We find that following the Brexit vote, volatility persistence increased significantly in the stock markets but decreased in the foreign exchange market. However we uncover similar patterns in the dynamics of volatility across both markets, with the post Brexit-vote news effect generally contributing less to volatility persistence. Our findings suggest that the increased post Brexit-vote volatility persistence is mainly driven by rising forecast variance from previous periods and that investors may have already priced in the news from the Brexit vote. Therefore, a Brexit-vote structural break may be irrelevant in modelling volatility dynamics.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-68
Number of pages4
JournalFinance Research Letters
Volume23
Early online date29 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2017

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Structural breaks
Vote
Volatility persistence
News
Volatility models
Foreign exchange market
Investors
Volatility modelling
Stock market

Keywords

  • Volatility persistence
  • Structural break
  • Brexit

Cite this

Estimating volatility persistence under a Brexit-vote structural break. / Adesina, Tola.

In: Finance Research Letters, Vol. 23, 11.2017, p. 65-68.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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