Economic and social inclusion to prevent violent extremism

This year appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region as governments are facing major policy challenges. Growth is expected to slow down to an average of 2.3 percent this year, half a percentage point lower than last year. Low oil prices have dampened growth among the oil exporters, especially the GCC countries, which are forecast to grow at only 1.6 percent in 2016. Four of the developing oil exporters—Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya—are mired in civil war or violent conflict. MENA’s oil importers, who would normally benefit from low oil prices, are also growing slowly (2.6 percent on average) because of spillovers from wars in neighboring countries or the effects of terrorist attacks on tourism and investor confidence. Recognizing that the rise of violent extremism has contributed to the region’s poor economic performance, the report looks at the underlying determinants of this phenomenon.