Distilling knowledge from publicly available online EMR data to emerging epidemic for prognosis

Due to the characteristics of COVID-19, the epidemic develops rapidly and overwhelms health service systems worldwide. Many patients suffer from life-threatening systemic problems and need to be carefully monitored in ICUs. An intelligent prognosis can help physicians take an early intervention, prevent adverse outcomes, and optimize the medical resource allocation, which is urgently needed, especially in this ongoing global pandemic crisis. However, in the early stage of the epidemic outbreak, the data available for analysis is limited due to the lack of effective diagnostic mechanisms, the rarity of the cases, and privacy concerns. In this paper, we propose a distilled transfer learning framework, which leverages the existing publicly available online Electronic Medical Records to enhance the prognosis for inpatients with emerging infectious diseases. It learns to embed the COVID-19-related medical features based on massive existing EMR data. The transferred parameters are further trained to imitate the teacher model's representation based on distillation, which embeds the health status more comprehensively on the source dataset. We conduct Length-of-Stay prediction experiments for patients in ICUs on real-world COVID-19 datasets. The experiment results indicate that our proposed model consistently outperforms competitive baseline methods. In order to further verify the scalability of o deal with different clinical tasks on different EMR datasets, we conduct an additional mortality prediction experiment on End-Stage Renal Disease datasets. The extensive experiments demonstrate that an benefit the prognosis for emerging pandemics and other diseases with limited EMR.