Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics: risk management and terrorist intensity

Terry Grissom, David McIlhatton, James R. DeLisle, Mike Hardy

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Abstract

The focus of terrorist events on urban centers and mass gathering sites and the intensity in which they have occurred in recent times has greatly enhanced the need to ensure that terrorism risk is managed effectively. Recent attacks have resulted in significant societal harm, particularly in the context of loss of life and injury, economic losses, property damage and the breaking down of societal relations. In light of the terrorist threat, significant challenges exist for counter terrorism practitioners and policy makers with many of these attacks occurring spontaneously, without warning, and with limited intelligence [McIlhatton et al., 2018a. Protecting crowded places from terrorism: An analysis of the current considerations and barriers inhibiting the adoption of counter terrorism protective security measures. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2018.1507311; McIlhatton et al., 2018b. Current considerations of counter terrorism in the risk management profession. Journal of Applied Security Research]. As a consequence, those tasked with managing terrorism risk require innovative and effective tools that can work towards a reduction in impact of these events, as well as a better understanding of terrorist decision objectives, behavioral characteristics, and potential loss exposures under uncertainty. This paper proposes a highly innovative methodological approach to understanding the potential impacts of terrorist actions, thus allowing practitioners and policymakers to manage terrorism risk more effectively and efficiently.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)73-112
Number of pages40
JournalBehavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression
Volume11
Issue number1
Early online date8 Jan 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Bibliographical note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression on 08/01/2019, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19434472.2018.1551917


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Keywords

  • behavioral analytics
  • decision theoretic
  • risk management
  • Terrorism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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