Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics: risk management and terrorist intensity

The focus of terrorist events on urban centers and mass gathering sites and the intensity in which they have occurred in recent times has greatly enhanced the need to ensure that terrorism risk is managed effectively. Recent attacks have resulted in significant societal harm, particularly in the context of loss of life and injury, economic losses, property damage and the breaking down of societal relations. In light of the terrorist threat, significant challenges exist for counter terrorism practitioners and policy makers with many of these attacks occurring spontaneously, without warning, and with limited intelligence [McIlhatton et al., 2018a. Protecting crowded places from terrorism: An analysis of the current considerations and barriers inhibiting the adoption of counter terrorism protective security measures. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2018.1507311; McIlhatton et al., 2018b. Current considerations of counter terrorism in the risk management profession. Journal of Applied Security Research]. As a consequence, those tasked with managing terrorism risk require innovative and effective tools that can work towards a reduction in impact of these events, as well as a better understanding of terrorist decision objectives, behavioral characteristics, and potential loss exposures under uncertainty. This paper proposes a highly innovative methodological approach to understanding the potential impacts of terrorist actions, thus allowing practitioners and policymakers to manage terrorism risk more effectively and efficiently.