Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics: risk management and terrorist intensity

Terry Grissom, David McIlhatton, James R. DeLisle, Mike Hardy

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    1 Citation (Scopus)
    91 Downloads (Pure)


    The focus of terrorist events on urban centers and mass gathering sites and the intensity in which they have occurred in recent times has greatly enhanced the need to ensure that terrorism risk is managed effectively. Recent attacks have resulted in significant societal harm, particularly in the context of loss of life and injury, economic losses, property damage and the breaking down of societal relations. In light of the terrorist threat, significant challenges exist for counter terrorism practitioners and policy makers with many of these attacks occurring spontaneously, without warning, and with limited intelligence [McIlhatton et al., 2018a. Protecting crowded places from terrorism: An analysis of the current considerations and barriers inhibiting the adoption of counter terrorism protective security measures. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2018.1507311; McIlhatton et al., 2018b. Current considerations of counter terrorism in the risk management profession. Journal of Applied Security Research]. As a consequence, those tasked with managing terrorism risk require innovative and effective tools that can work towards a reduction in impact of these events, as well as a better understanding of terrorist decision objectives, behavioral characteristics, and potential loss exposures under uncertainty. This paper proposes a highly innovative methodological approach to understanding the potential impacts of terrorist actions, thus allowing practitioners and policymakers to manage terrorism risk more effectively and efficiently.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)73-112
    Number of pages40
    JournalBehavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression
    Issue number1
    Early online date8 Jan 2019
    Publication statusPublished - 2019

    Bibliographical note

    This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression on 08/01/2019, available online:

    Copyright © and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.


    • behavioral analytics
    • decision theoretic
    • risk management
    • Terrorism

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Social Psychology
    • Sociology and Political Science
    • Political Science and International Relations


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