Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics: risk management and terrorist intensity

Terry Grissom, David McIlhatton, James R. DeLisle, Mike Hardy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The focus of terrorist events on urban centers and mass gathering sites and the intensity in which they have occurred in recent times has greatly enhanced the need to ensure that terrorism risk is managed effectively. Recent attacks have resulted in significant societal harm, particularly in the context of loss of life and injury, economic losses, property damage and the breaking down of societal relations. In light of the terrorist threat, significant challenges exist for counter terrorism practitioners and policy makers with many of these attacks occurring spontaneously, without warning, and with limited intelligence [McIlhatton et al., 2018a. Protecting crowded places from terrorism: An analysis of the current considerations and barriers inhibiting the adoption of counter terrorism protective security measures. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. doi:10.1080/1057610X.2018.1507311; McIlhatton et al., 2018b. Current considerations of counter terrorism in the risk management profession. Journal of Applied Security Research]. As a consequence, those tasked with managing terrorism risk require innovative and effective tools that can work towards a reduction in impact of these events, as well as a better understanding of terrorist decision objectives, behavioral characteristics, and potential loss exposures under uncertainty. This paper proposes a highly innovative methodological approach to understanding the potential impacts of terrorist actions, thus allowing practitioners and policymakers to manage terrorism risk more effectively and efficiently.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)73-112
Number of pages40
JournalBehavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression
Volume11
Issue number1
Early online date8 Jan 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Fingerprint

Terrorism
Risk Management
risk management
terrorism
Security Measures
event
Administrative Personnel
Intelligence
Uncertainty
intelligence
damages
profession
Economics
uncertainty
threat
Wounds and Injuries

Bibliographical note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in
Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Agression on [in press], available
online: IN PRESS

Copyright © and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright
owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study,
without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.

Keywords

  • behavioral analytics
  • decision theoretic
  • risk management
  • Terrorism

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

Decision-theoretic behavioral analytics : risk management and terrorist intensity. / Grissom, Terry; McIlhatton, David; DeLisle, James R. ; Hardy, Mike.

In: Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2019, p. 73-112.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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