COVID-19: The Vaccination Program and Its Influence on Air Travel Demand in the U.S.A

David Ricardo Cecanecchia Fernandes, Viviane Adriano Falcão, Carlos Fabricio Assunção da Silva, Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da Silva, Luiz Henrique Cecanecchia Fernandes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Aviation was one of the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the return of civil aviation in the U.S.A. after the start of the immunization campaign to combat the pandemic. The research is based on vaccination records after immunization started. First, we applied an ordinary least squares regression, which considers the sum of aircraft arrivals and landings as a dependent variable and the number of vaccine doses administered to the U.S. population as an independent variable. In addition, we examined the effect of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and then the vaccination program on total aircraft movements. Finally, a regression analysis with a correction for heteroscedasticity was conducted, using the variables previously mentioned. We observed that the vaccination program was necessary to help the aviation sector recover enough in the U.S.A. to achieve the minimum number of operations that had taken place in 2019 at U.S. airports.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)(In-Press)
Number of pages9
JournalTransportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 31 Aug 2023


  • aviation system planning
  • airport systems
  • air cargo
  • airlines
  • aviation economics
  • aviation forecasting


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