Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

Omid Chatrabgoun, R Karimi, Alireza Daneshkhah, Soroush Abolfathi, H Nouri, Mohsen Esmaeilbeigi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.
Original languageEnglish
Article number108150
Number of pages12
JournalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
Early online date11 Sep 2020
Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2020


Research Institute for Grapes and Raisin (RIGR) Grant number: 84/5-1-58


  • Copula model
  • Extreme climatic event
  • Frost
  • Probabilistic risk assessment
  • Return period
  • Vineyard

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Forestry
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Atmospheric Science

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