Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

O Chatrabgoun; R Karimi; A Daneshkhah; S Abolfathi; H Nouri; M Esmaeilbeigi

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150

Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

O Chatrabgoun, R Karimi, A Daneshkhah, S Abolfathi, H Nouri, M Esmaeilbeigi

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Abstract

Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.

Original language	English
Article number	108150
Number of pages	12
Journal	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume	295
Early online date	11 Sept 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150
Publication status	Published - 15 Dec 2020

Bibliographical note

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, (2020) DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150

© 2017, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Funder

Research Institute for Grapes and Raisin (RIGR) Grant number: 84/5-1-58

Keywords

Copula model
Extreme climatic event
Frost
Probabilistic risk assessment
Return period
Vineyard

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Forestry
Global and Planetary Change
Agronomy and Crop Science
Atmospheric Science

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150

Post-PrintAccepted author manuscript, 1.21 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

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title = "Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region",

abstract = "Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter{\textquoteright}s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.",

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note = "NOTICE: this is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, (2020) DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150 {\textcopyright} 2017, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ",

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AU - Nouri, H

AU - Esmaeilbeigi, M

N1 - NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, (2020) DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150 © 2017, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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N2 - Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.

AB - Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.

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Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funder

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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