Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

Omid Chatrabgoun, R Karimi, Alireza Daneshkhah, Soroush Abolfathi, H Nouri, Mohsen Esmaeilbeigi

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    17 Citations (Scopus)
    110 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vineyards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully validated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number108150
    Number of pages12
    JournalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Volume295
    Early online date11 Sept 2020
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2020

    Bibliographical note

    NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 295, (2020) DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108150

    © 2017, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

    Funder

    Research Institute for Grapes and Raisin (RIGR) Grant number: 84/5-1-58

    Keywords

    • Copula model
    • Extreme climatic event
    • Frost
    • Probabilistic risk assessment
    • Return period
    • Vineyard

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Forestry
    • Global and Planetary Change
    • Agronomy and Crop Science
    • Atmospheric Science

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