Cholera in Haiti: reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

Zindoga Mukandavire, David L Smith, J Glenn Morris

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    Abstract

    Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (R(0)). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. R(0) varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an (R(0)) <1, which would suppress transmission. In the current debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number997
    Pages (from-to)1-8
    Number of pages8
    JournalScientific Reports
    Volume3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 10 Jan 2013

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    Haiti
    Cholera
    Cholera Vaccines
    Vaccination
    Theoretical Models

    Bibliographical note

    This work is licensed under a Creative Commons
    Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this
    license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

    Keywords

    • Cholera
    • Cholera Vaccines
    • Haiti
    • Humans
    • Models, Theoretical
    • Vaccination
    • Journal Article
    • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
    • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
    • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

    Cite this

    Cholera in Haiti : reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates. / Mukandavire, Zindoga; Smith, David L; Morris, J Glenn.

    In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 3, 997, 10.01.2013, p. 1-8.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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