Can paroxysmal atrial fibrillation be predicted?

P. Langley, D. Di Bernardo, J. Allen, E. Bowers, F.E. Smith, S. Vecchietti, A. Murray

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference proceedingpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)


Atrial fibrillation is an ECG rhythm with a significant mortality due to stroke. The objective of this study was to detect those patients most likely to develop atrial fibrillation, and to identify ECGs closest to the onset of fibrillation. Our hypothesis was that patients with atrial fibrillation would have atrial ectopy, and the frequency of this activity would increase prior to onset of fibrillation. From a learning set of 100 30-minute ECGs from 50 patients, 25 without atrial fibrillation (normal) and 25 who subsequently developed atrial fibrillation, an algorithm was developed to detect the presence of ectopic beats using R-R interval data. In the learning set, 37/50 abnormal and 34/50 normal patients were identified, giving a potential screening accuracy of 71%. As a prediction test to detect the ECGs closest to atrial fibrillation, 19/25 were correctly identified. For the test set, a total of 29/50 were correctly assigned to the normal and fibrillation groups, and a 39/50 score obtained in predicting the onset of atrial fibrillation.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComputers in Cardiology
ISBN (Print)0-7803-7266-2
Publication statusPublished - 2001
Externally publishedYes
EventComputers in Cardiology 2001 - Rotterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 23 Sept 200126 Sept 2001

Publication series

NameComputers in Cardiology
ISSN (Print)0276-6547


ConferenceComputers in Cardiology 2001


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