An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

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    Abstract

    Recently, the study of the coherent noise model has led to a simple (binary) prediction algorithm for the forthcoming earthquake magnitude in aftershock sequences. This algorithm is based on the concept of natural time and exploits the complexity exhibited by the coherent noise model. Here, using the relocated catalogue from Southern California Seismic Network for 1981 to June 2011, we evaluate the application of this algorithm for the aftershocks of strong earthquakes of magnitude. The study is also extended by using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalogue to the case of the six strongest earthquakes in the Earth during the last almost forty years. The predictor time series exhibits the ubiquitous noise behavior. (This abstract contains graphics that are better viewed from the linked URL)
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number6853892
    JournalComplexity
    Volume2017
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 20 Feb 2017

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    aftershock
    time series
    prediction
    centroid moment tensor
    earthquake
    earthquake magnitude

    Bibliographical note

    This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

    Cite this

    An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series. / Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G.; Sarlis, N. V.

    In: Complexity, Vol. 2017, 6853892, 20.02.2017.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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