A robust forecasting system, based on the combination of two simple moving averages

F. R. Johnston, J. E. Boylan, E. Shale, M. Meadows

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

For series with negligible growth and seasonality, simple moving averages are frequently used to estimate the current level of a process, and the resultant value projected as a forecast for future observations. This paper shows that a linear combination of two simple moving averages (SMA) can provide an improved estimate of the underlying level of the process. The proposition is demonstrated by simulation, and good combinations are listed. The theory underlying the improvement is developed. The general rules are then illustrated through an application in an inventory situation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1199-1204
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
Volume50
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1999
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Combinations of forecasts
  • Forecasting
  • Moving averages
  • Time series

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Information Systems
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Marketing

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A robust forecasting system, based on the combination of two simple moving averages'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this