Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units.
Bibliographical note"This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Rostami-Tabar, B. , Babai, M.Z. , Syntetos, A. and Ducq, Y. (2014) A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation. Naval Research Logistics , volume 61 (7): 489-500, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/nav.21598. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving."
- demand forecasting
- temporal aggregation
- stationary processes
- single exponential smoothing