A Monte Carlo-based approach for the evaluation of Mexico's geothermal potential

A. Palacios, R. Koon-Koon, G. Miranda-Flores, S. Lewis, P.M. Castro-Olivera, A. Cordova-Lizama, A.I. Hernandez-Garcia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Geothermal energy is one of the largest renewable energy sources available in Mexico and is the most important non-conventional renewable energy source utilised in this country. It is estimated that Mexico has geothermal reserves of approximately 8000 MWe, which can be implemented for the generation of green hydrogen. The paper focuses on the geothermal energy potential of high-enthalpy resources dominantly found South and Southeast Mexico, through investigations of 12 hot springs, with temperature depths as high as 400 °C in some areas. The utilization of suitable power production equations is further refined using the Monte Carlo Method to optimize the numerical findings of the power potential. Therefore, the Visual Basic Application (VBA) in Microsoft Excel is used through the Visual Basic Editor (VBE) function to code the Volumetric Method Equations. Furthermore, 20,000 iterations are then simulated to produce the minimum and maximum power potential/capacity (MWe), from which 10 % and 90 % confidence intervals are then determined. The study calculates that, considering a production lifetime range of 25 years, a total of 147.57 MWe of geothermal power capacity could be generated across all 12 hot springs in Mexico.
Original languageEnglish
Article number120006
Number of pages11
JournalRenewable Energy
Early online date13 Jan 2024
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2024


  • Mexico
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • geothermal potential
  • hot springs


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