Forest ecosystems are importantly influenced by disturbances caused by factors such as severe weather conditions, fires, and insect pests and diseases. Understanding to what extent climate change associated with anthropogenic activities is changing the impact of these disturbances is crucial in developing robust, well-informed mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Climate change projections generated by earth system models (ESMs) continue to provide the most important basis for understanding past, present and future changes in the climate system and its impacts. ESMs are subject to systematic errors and biases that are not fully taken into account, particularly when combining the output of models from multiple sources.
This PhD project, led by doctoral researcher Carolina Gallo, will develop and apply a series of novel evaluation and model-weighting methods to state-of-the-art ESM simulations in order to generate a new set of scenarios specifically designed to quantify changes in forest disturbances. It is anticipated that the projects’ outcomes will both significantly advance our understanding of climate-related stresses on forest ecosystems and illustrate the benefits of a goal-specific evaluation and optimisation process for ESM output.